Pac-12 Championship Preview

We breakdown the Oregon vs USC Conference Title along with the rest of the Pac-12/MWC matchups this weekend

Photo: Eugene Johnson

Article by Kyle Kollman

Pac-12 Championship: Oregon at USC (-3)

  • The winner of the last 12 games in this series also covered the spread (10 of the 12 were favorites).

  • Oregon has won 5 of the last 7 matchups against USC.

  • The Trojans are 13-19-1 against the spread as a favorite since 2017.

  • The Ducks are 6-12 straight up as an underdog since 2016.

  • The over has hit in 6 of the 7 games in this series. O/U is 63.

Prediction: The Ducks will face off against USC for the Pac-12 Championship after Washington had to cancel their games the last two weeks due to Covid protocols. Tyler Shough and Kedon Slovis, two sophomore quarterbacks from the state of Arizona, will face off in the biggest game of the season. The title game will feature the two best passing offenses per game in the Pac-12. Oregon has seen tremendous success in Joe Moorhead’s first season at Oregon. He has led the Ducks to the most yards per game and most yards per play in the Pac-12. Both defenses are average in defending the pass and the run, so expect a lot of fireworks. Oddsmakers have set the over/under at 64 projecting a high scoring game. That being said, the Trojans have had success getting after the QB, generating the 2nd most sacks in the conference and the Trojans are 2nd in turnover margin (+7). USC will force Tyler Shough to throw a couple of interceptions but Shough will make big plays when it matters most and lead the Ducks to a game winning TD in the final seconds. The Ducks take home the Pac-12 title 35-30.

Washington State at Utah (-10.5):

  • Washington State is 18-8 against the spread as a road underdog since 2012.

  • Utah is 27-3 straight up as a home favorite since 2015.

  • The Utes are 28-14 ATS in conference games dating back to 2016.

Prediction: Utah has some strong momentum after upsetting Colorado last week. The Utes rush defense has controlled the line of scrimmage and anchored this team. The Cougars have not played since being blown out by USC. Washington State’s passing defense really struggled and has given up the most passing yards per game in the conference. That may not matter though as Utah has the 2nd worst passing offense in the Pac-12. Freshman running back Ty Jordan has been on fire running for over 400 yards in his last 3 games. He is going to be special for the Utes. Washington State will keep this game close but ultimately the Utes win 31-24.

Stanford at UCLA (-7):

  • Stanford is just 1-7 straight up as an away underdog since 2017.

  • The Bruins are 11-16 ATS as a home favorite since 2014.

  • UCLA is 15-24-1 against the spread at home since 2014.

  • Last year UCLA snapped Stanford’s 11 game winning streak in this series.

Prediction: Stanford is vying for their 3rd consecutive win after practicing on the road all week. UCLA is off a heartbreaking loss to their cross-town rival. This will be the last game of the season for both schools after both opted out of playing in a bowl game this season. Look for UCLA to have success pounding the rock. The Bruins have run the ball for over 220 yards per game, the 2nd best clip in the conference. This is a bad matchup for Stanford who has surrendered over 200 yards per game, the 2nd worst in the Pac-12. On the other side of the ball, UCLA has led the conference in sacks averaging over 3.5 sacks per game. Davis Mills will need to be efficient and not get behind the chains. The Cardinal offense has really protected well with only 2 turnovers in 5 games, the best in the Pac-12. Demetric Felton and Dorian Thompson-Robinson will prove too much for Stanford as UCLA wins 34-27.

Arizona State at Oregon State (+7):

  • The Sun Devils are just 4-5 straight up as a road favorite since 2015.

  • ASU is just 4-10 ATS as favorites since 2018.

  • Since last season the Beavers are 12-4 against the spread as an underdog. (6 of those games they won outright).

  • The Beavers are 6-2-1 against the spread vs ASU in the last 9 games in this series.

  • The home team has won 7 of the last 8 games in this season.

Prediction: The Sun Devils are coming off a historic beat down of their in-state rivals. ASU will try to replicate their success on the ground and the Beavers have not defended the run game well so it could be a long day for them. Chance Nolan has been efficient in replacing the injured starting Quarterback Tristian Gebbia. In recent years ASU has not played well as a road favorite. The Beavers give the Sun Devils all they can handle, but ASU holds on 28-27.

MWC Championship: Boise State vs SJSU (+6.5):

  • The Broncos have won 16 of their last 17 games as a favorite outright.

  • The Spartans are 14-6-1 against the spread as an underdog.

  • Boise State is a perfect 14-0 all-time against San Jose State.

Prediction: Can San Jose State continue their Cinderella season and capture the Mountain West crown? Or will Boise State win 3 of the last 4 conference titles? The Bronco’s have shut down Mountain West quarterbacks as they have the best pass defense in the conference. They will go up against Nick Starkel who has had a tremendous first season with the Spartans. On the other side of the ball, Cade Hall led the Mountain West in sacks and was named the defensive player. of the year in the MWC. Hank Bachmeier has been able to keep the chains moving on 3rd down at the 2nd best rate in the conference. The clock strikes midnight on San Jose State as Boise State wins the conference title in overtime 31-27.