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Week 4 Odds, Trends and Predictions

Your betting guide to a pivotal Week 4 in Pac-12 Play.

Photo: Colorado Athletics

Article by Kyle Kollman

In what will be a weekly column, we provide you with our weekly predictions, picks against the spread and situational trends for CFB programs in the West.

Stanford at Cal (+2):

  • Stanford is 0-6 on the road against the spread since 2018.

  • The Cardinal have covered just once in 8 games as a road favorite since 2017.

  • The Bears had lost 9 straight in this series before beating Stanford last season.

Prediction: Both teams enter the 114th matchup of the big game at 0-2 trying to get their first win of the season. A big reason neither team has won a game yet is their inability to stop the run. Cal and Stanford have the two worst rushing defenses in the Pac-12 as both give up more than 223 yards per game. Christopher Brown is a game time decision for Cal. Austin Jones has only averaged 3.8 yards per carry in two games and Stanford will need him to pop some explosive runs if they are going to win. COVID-19 contact tracing protocols have decimated the Bears starting lineup. Chase Garbers has thrown three picks in Cal’s first two games. A late blocked punt and an interception were the reason the Bears lost last week. I think this game will come down to the wire, but Stanford takes back the axe 27-24.

Oregon at Oregon State (+14):

  • Oregon is 20-2 straight up as a favorite since 2018.

  • The Ducks are 7-3 against the spread as a road favorite since 2017.

  • Oregon has won 13 of the last 14 matchups in the Civil War.

  • Since last season the Beavers are 10-4 ATS as an underdog.

Prediction: The Beavers made clutch plays down the stretch last week to complete the comeback for their first win of the season. I would expect Oregon State to play inspired in the first half against arch-rival Oregon. Joe Moorhead has the Oregon offense rolling though. The Ducks have gained almost 500 yards per game, the best in the Pac-12. The Ducks will pull away in the 2nd half to win 41-24

San Diego State at Colorado (-3):

Credit to San Diego State for cobbling together a last minute game with the Buffs this weekend. The Aztecs are 3-2 and boast a solid defense but it won't be enough to keep up with the high flying Colorado offense led by Sam Noyer and Jarek Broussard. Buffs win 31-21.

Arizona at UCLA (-10.5):

  • Arizona is just 8-32 straight up as an underdog since 2015.

  • The Wildcats are 5-16 ATS as a road underdog since 2015.

  • UCLA is just 14-23-1 against the spread at home since 2014.

  • The home team has won the last 4 games in this series.

Prediction: The Bruins were frisky last week taking Oregon down to the wire, while Arizona was blown out in Seattle. Regardless if it is Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Chase Griffin at Quarterback for UCLA, I think the Bruin’s will have success moving the ball. UCLA has put up at least 34 points in all 3 games this season. Arizona has given up the most points per game in the conference. Expect Arizona to bounce back on offense this week but fall short in 38-30 UCLA victory.

Utah at Washington (-7):

  • Washington has won 25 of their last 27 games outright as a home favorite since 2016.

  • The Utes are 23-10 against the spread on the road since 2014

  • Utah has won 8 of their last 11 games on the road since 2018.

Prediction: Credit to both programs for getting this game scheduled on short notice. John Donovan opened up the offense last week (despite Jimmy Lake wearing a hat that said “run the damn ball”). Dylan Morris had success throwing short and intermediate passes, exhibiting some good zip on the ball. It was important to show Washington can have success in the air along with their stable of running backs. Utah’s 5 turnovers last week, was the difference against USC. If the Utes can be more efficient on offense, they can put up a fight against the Huskies. That will be tough though against the best defense so far in the Pac-12. Washington will ride their shut down defense to another win at Husky Stadium 28-21.

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